MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3a7089bf9d65075245363dc22d44048c6129de40654db427f77c9eda1d81101

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Metsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,941 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals	74c	337.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Mets	26c	248.63$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.98	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	15c	150.83$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.85	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked New York Mets	27c	149.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.25	272	48.5%132 W · 140 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Washington Nationals	73c	93.3$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.11	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals	73c	51.37$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd91d…8b41backed Washington Nationals	72c	35.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ba…d593backed Washington Nationals	72c	35.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe933…0abcbacked Washington Nationals	72c	33.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Washington Nationals	74c	33.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	136	72.1%98 W · 38 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1e…02acbacked Washington Nationals	72c	33.7$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.46per pick	71cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5da4…6756backed Washington Nationals	72c	33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.25per pick	68cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31a0…85a8backed Washington Nationals	72c	32.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	64cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e9…7ed8backed Washington Nationals	72c	32.6$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	63cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb4c…25e6backed Washington Nationals	72c	32.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	65cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7e…0742backed Washington Nationals	72c	32.31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…d21cbacked Washington Nationals	72c	32.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8c…7a0cbacked Washington Nationals	72c	32$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc276…1c52backed Washington Nationals	72c	31.89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.29per pick	63cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x295f…48debacked Washington Nationals	72c	31.89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87f6…6152backed Washington Nationals	72c	31.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f0b…340ebacked Washington Nationals	72c	31.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd954…5982backed Washington Nationals	72c	31.6$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	67cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…ff8abacked Washington Nationals	72c	31.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6783…73f9backed Washington Nationals	72c	31.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	67cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b4…079fbacked Washington Nationals	72c	31.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa382…2e3bbacked Washington Nationals	72c	30.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.40per pick	65cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48ac…052fbacked Washington Nationals	72c	30.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f1…adc3backed Washington Nationals	72c	30.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d2…7e20backed Washington Nationals	72c	30.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.89	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.5wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d3f…c729backed Washington Nationals	72c	30.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf3…7b13backed Washington Nationals	72c	30.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	70cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf835…ec25backed Washington Nationals	72c	29.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf16b…bfb5backed Washington Nationals	72c	29.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e77…09b8backed Washington Nationals	72c	29.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe9…7c35backed Washington Nationals	72c	29.3$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	71cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11dd…ab7cbacked Washington Nationals	72c	29.3$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-28%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6c…88a0backed Washington Nationals	72c	29.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	62cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fcb…0694backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2c…d4fabacked Washington Nationals	72c	28.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c6…6a00backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	66cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94dc…c7b5backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.45per pick	65cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd0a…0016backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ddf…3ff6backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f0…0f04backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae70…8194backed Washington Nationals	72c	28.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf244…a9fbbacked Washington Nationals	72c	28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	59cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36fe…b091backed Washington Nationals	72c	28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c5e…8a41backed Washington Nationals	72c	27.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4dc…7945backed Washington Nationals	72c	27.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0743…1228backed Washington Nationals	72c	27.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…2ef8backed Washington Nationals	72c	27.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x077b…11d4backed Washington Nationals	72c	27.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993b…6a7ebacked Washington Nationals	72c	26.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88c…26b7backed Washington Nationals	72c	26.6$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe998…ac26backed Washington Nationals	72c	25.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.7wins	-0.38per pick	67cpaid	-60%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed9c…7854backed Washington Nationals	72c	25.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…3ceabacked Washington Nationals	72c	25.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38d…d8f7backed Washington Nationals	72c	25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+35%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b42…525ebacked Washington Nationals	72c	24.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x458d…15adbacked Washington Nationals	72c	24.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…760bbacked Washington Nationals	72c	24.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.44per pick	64cpaid	-74%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0ff…6544backed Washington Nationals	72c	24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec1…3768backed Washington Nationals	72c	23.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18af…af4dbacked Washington Nationals	72c	23.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a7…4d52backed Washington Nationals	72c	22.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	68cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ef4…66c0backed Washington Nationals	72c	22.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.38per pick	63cpaid	-50%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…9483backed Washington Nationals	72c	21.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1696…5192backed Washington Nationals	72c	20.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…b2fcbacked Washington Nationals	72c	20.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…7310backed Washington Nationals	72c	19.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f5…cd2fbacked Washington Nationals	72c	19.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.43per pick	63cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x082a…a540backed Washington Nationals	72c	19.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb34d…4219backed Washington Nationals	72c	19.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	63cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x823d…5ed5backed Washington Nationals	72c	18.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-2.0wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2fd…8914backed Washington Nationals	72c	15.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…23fabacked Washington Nationals	72c	15.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event