MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x502fab14d2a45c8a4a37260764b90d8bd7f8b6b65391007238ffdf19e3c112c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 47c | 5,459$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.67 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 4,813$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 4,699$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 3,942$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,897$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,884$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.08 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 880.59$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 46c | 813$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.98 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 378.86$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 338.61$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 297.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 255.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 26c | 242$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 236.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 193.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 128.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 54c | 105.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 63c | 101.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 48c | 96.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 45c | 96.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 95.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 33c | 66.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 55c | 60.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 33c | 59.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 68c | 54.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 47c | 52.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Over | 54c | 47.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Under | 46c | 47.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 49c | 41.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 45c | 34.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 51c | 33.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a42…ad20backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 26.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 56c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 73c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c5aebacked Over | 55c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 55c | 20.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.