MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91b911761ce007e6afde69494363c70bb929de762b99b630a200a36862ece0e

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Metsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,499

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	76c	1,774$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,342.97	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	29c	1,196$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$846.72	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets	3c	1,034$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.33	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets	43c	999.98$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.99	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals	64c	610.49$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.04	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals	63c	489.18$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.21	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed New York Mets	35c	428.57$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.57	304	52%158 W · 146 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals	57c	417.06$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.72	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a32…6bbebacked Washington Nationals	55c	380$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…7b09backed New York Mets	46c	379.81$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.1	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed New York Mets	24c	326.25$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.95	946	48.9%463 W · 483 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals	56c	273$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.88	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Mets	31c	272.99$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.57	996	24.6%245 W · 751 L	-70.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets	43c	263.16$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals	57c	263.16$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	432	47%203 W · 229 L	-19.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Mets	36c	262$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.68	753	44.1%332 W · 421 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets	44c	258.63$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.82	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Washington Nationals	57c	245.61$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	119	61.3%73 W · 46 L	+9.8wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Mets	44c	179.78$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.71	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals	64c	175.83$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.53	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Washington Nationals	58c	174.81$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.39	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Washington Nationals	57c	174.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Washington Nationals	57c	157.89$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets	41c	151.39$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.32	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Washington Nationals	56c	133.93$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals	54c	122.73$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets	44c	121.73$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.29	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked New York Mets	45c	120$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	120	61.7%74 W · 46 L	+7.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals	55c	86.66$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals	59c	83$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.88	468	54.5%255 W · 213 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals	59c	83$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.88	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets	46c	75.14$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.39	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals	56c	73$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.88	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals	57c	68.42$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals	53c	61.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.49	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6419…0f53backed New York Mets	43c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed New York Mets	24c	58.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.59	446	48.7%217 W · 229 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals	57c	52.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Washington Nationals	72c	48.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.88	499	42.9%214 W · 285 L	-31.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals	77c	45$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.57	475	89.1%423 W · 52 L	+84.9wins	+0.18per pick	71cpaid	+25%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals	55c	40.01$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed New York Mets	44c	38$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.28	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Washington Nationals	69c	35.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	418	36.4%152 W · 266 L	-31.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Washington Nationals	77c	33.78$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	677	42.2%286 W · 391 L	-36.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals	66c	31.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals	77c	31$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Washington Nationals	55c	29.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	316	50.6%160 W · 156 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed New York Mets	42c	25.6$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.72	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals	56c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb13…d09bbacked Washington Nationals	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals	72c	14.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event