MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5520d37d25c924a0b26690c5829ac6b999919ad6045adfee8028bc6e66223efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 54c | 21,285$11,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,477.94 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 11,753$5,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.13 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 2,907$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.55 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 2,385$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.62 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,154$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 1,465$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.27 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,452$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.54 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 42c | 1,272$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 1,236$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.97 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 1,121$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.93 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 47c | 1,030$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.9 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 1,023$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 70c | 961.13$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.98 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 941.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 750.19$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.1 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 703.46$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 52c | 608.1$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.21 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 491.69$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.42 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 46c | 484.38$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.57 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 433.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 321.49$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 53c | 317.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 291$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 57c | 260.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 116.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 56c | 96.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 74.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 58.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 55.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 48.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 48c | 41.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 55c | 38.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 41c | 33.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 64c | 32.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked Over | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 74c | 29.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Under | 47c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 44c | 22.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 20.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.