Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c69621595577a2dfab30cc16b42d39fae9f4dfc918ad0b46c222f03248cc86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,954$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.13 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 37c | 1,813$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.67 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 1,678$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 54c | 1,623$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 1,157$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 57c | 606.31$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.23 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 27c | 400.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 56c | 355.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 76c | 214.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 56c | 179.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 153.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.89 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 136.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…fb15backed Yes | 57c | 123.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 102.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 66c | 97.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Yes | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 20c | 94.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 15c | 93.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 83.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 58c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 16c | 78.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 49c | 66.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 42c | 63.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 78c | 59.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 42c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 56c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Yes | 58c | 31.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…7fd7backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.