Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d4c27b4ce7d4a960bd3f25a2b1f96acebf3bd81e93f03cf651efb08ad3d472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 594.88$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 576.87$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 504.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 463.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed No | 67c | 298.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 232.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 27c | 230.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 75c | 207.79$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 207.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 196.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 142.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 139.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 118.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 80.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 65c | 76.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 69.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 68.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 35c | 59.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 55.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 70c | 53.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 46.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 42.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 33.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 65c | 33.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.