Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17913c7efaaeef5f1b71bb3533c4f247a49911fa9d7865df49b26391333fb91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 17c | 1,042$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 373.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 311.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 150.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 148.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 78c | 127.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 118.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 110.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 31c | 97.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 92.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 86.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 61c | 85.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 80.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 70c | 75.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 63.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 55.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…938ebacked Yes | 28c | 52.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 43c | 48.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 45.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 42c | 44.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 28c | 41.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 50c | 39.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 39.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 57c | 37.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 34.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 29.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 72c | 26.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 23.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 68c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.