Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a9ad04a3d17ec4738b876f24b4a421ab23724a2a2bd81fe2554062af867ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 857.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 3c | 747.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.77 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 3c | 658.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.46 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 598.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 584.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 578.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 5c | 569.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 5c | 556.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.23 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 525.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 9c | 477.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.62 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 384.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 4c | 365.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.85 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 344.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 295$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked No | 6c | 221.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 7c | 214.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.94 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 168.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 13c | 163.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 72c | 153.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 152.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 144.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 8c | 131$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 47c | 125.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 27c | 123.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 119.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 115.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 114.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 86.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 33c | 76.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 15c | 74.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 63.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 35c | 63.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 30c | 62.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 35c | 57.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 42.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 37.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 30.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 27.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 25.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…4568backed Yes | 69c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.