MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf400dc6684dc2e66202cc4b8c4dbda2937065cc11d1f66e534586588fc9d0d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,094 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Milwaukee Brewers | 0c | 10,091$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 4c | 2,121$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,902$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.81 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 6c | 1,834$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 1,250$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,026$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.12 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 652.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 12c | 606.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 9c | 518.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 495.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.33 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Milwaukee Brewers | 3c | 372.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 335.43$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 303.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 271.73$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 261$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 254.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 244$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 237.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Milwaukee Brewers | 11c | 184.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…242dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 164.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 161.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 114.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 86.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 80.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…70c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 49.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 44.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 32.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.