Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43c4088cbb1e0f7936049bddc1b13e4096cd1efd9f4965b0da2cce5e9a085f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 1,557$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.47 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 798.1$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 678.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 31c | 562.82$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 64c | 510$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 72c | 481.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 68c | 433.22$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.48 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 314$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 17c | 299$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 25c | 275.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 25c | 141.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 76c | 131.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 24c | 111.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 74c | 96.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 62.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 31.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.