MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4439b2f62e75e3be1026959d04de27529dbc2191600b49a1a51aa31fd3d596e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3d5…dba4backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 11,350$6,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,696.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 10,538$4,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,224.04 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 3,628$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.8 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 3,200$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Texas Rangers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 1,399$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.92 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4364…dc7abacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 797.97$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…0b10backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 530.88$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 426.2$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…fa32backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Texas Rangers | 53c | 199$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 27.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 18.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.