MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44d92338f1b8e0e68f6849da134f242d66a004de7e67ba19eb69f606ec68da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 1,181$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 537$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 346$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 217.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…9f7bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 208.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 181.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 136.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…42cabacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 135$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 128.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 98.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 57.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 51.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 23.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.