MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabad2cc02240a9c989e66174d324efaf726abd85f6bb2dd93b28beedb826cf66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 8,961$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.19 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 3,761$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 2,748$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 2,191$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,279$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 1,095$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,024$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.12 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,000$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 947.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 574.13$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…e4a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 335.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 225$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 217.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 188.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 178$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 107.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 83.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 48.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 27.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 27.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 27.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.