MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf148de89c54a1a41a9de63f27b2d84e598edbfc976459f3d09b666a4e346f9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 53c | 7,271$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,843.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…8277backed No | 10c | 2,946$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 1,464$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 47c | 998$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 79c | 824.13$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed No | 4c | 553.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 48c | 347$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 47c | 274$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 47c | 112.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 375 | 46.9%176 W · 199 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 53c | 76.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.