Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46b61dbe1716933e07b33b95ed31cc9eb4436290408fe664210e0b2247cd3a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 26c | 976.92$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 499.56$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 389.64$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 310.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 227.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 224.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…a158backed Yes | 16c | 207.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 8c | 195.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 147.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 16c | 125.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 13c | 125.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 17c | 80.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 19c | 79.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 75.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 23c | 66.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 57.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 54.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 21c | 48.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 41.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 73c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 70c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 72c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.