Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f2f547040506e00398030c476bd5e7d1162154de7bfcbb40bb6eac0fc39c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 637.73$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…b4cebacked No | 47c | 539.59$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 438.46$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 431.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 358.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 310.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 303.61$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 263.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 252.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.89 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 59c | 186.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 183.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 64c | 180.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 149.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 147.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 132.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 126.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 13c | 125.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 123.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 114.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 29c | 104.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 28c | 103.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 97.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 21c | 96.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 89.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 38c | 87.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 85.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 83.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 66.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 63.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 59c | 59.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 55.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 76c | 52.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 28c | 51.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 51.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 48.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 47.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 40.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 40c | 36.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 32c | 33.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1d…8292backed No | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 74c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 77c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 17.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.