Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48bf9dd648d014c89fdbe7933d2833fe04e6e604eec292ca0cf060a6572c607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,163 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 18c | 999$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 74c | 891.89$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 26c | 717.08$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 74c | 572.97$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 520.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 74c | 351.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 25c | 252$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 24c | 225.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 124.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 74c | 108.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…398cbacked Over | 25c | 97.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 25c | 59.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 56.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 27c | 54.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…6a46backed Over | 26c | 46.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 75c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.