Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f1d6f7c54a0407c4a1dd37c35a68b58fa287c58e5bd52f7c716dffc46025be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 5,851$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.63 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 45c | 2,399$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.62 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 52c | 1,096$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 52c | 1,079$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.6 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 992.86$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.32 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 52c | 807.69$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.69 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +12.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 45c | 769.3$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.48 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 37c | 667.19$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.03 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 560.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Over | 48c | 528.73$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c08abacked Over | 50c | 424.54$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…b3a2backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 50c | 331.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Under | 52c | 305.47$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 52c | 269.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…8b41backed Over | 48c | 263.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Under | 52c | 223.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 56c | 221.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…217ebacked Over | 47c | 210.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 51c | 157$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1134…90f1backed Over | 45c | 155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…0923backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 135.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…eecfbacked Over | 45c | 133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 115.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 47c | 113.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 45c | 112.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 10c | 106.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…398cbacked Under | 54c | 92.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 45c | 88.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…d587backed Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 45c | 63.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.6%124 W · 126 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 45c | 54.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 45c | 53.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 45c | 50.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5a02backed Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 44c | 46.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b6…bfa2backed Under | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb108…ed5bbacked Under | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 52c | 32.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…31c9backed Over | 46c | 32.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…57dfbacked Over | 45c | 32.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 221 | 56.1%124 W · 97 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316d…7b32backed Over | 48c | 25.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Under | 80c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 23.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Over | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…8b25backed Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.