Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x071a387af73f9f4ad7f31a4e494ac716b2f34ea07a15f2b52c5b7d60cfc23400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,014 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,074$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 22c | 1,185$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.99 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 25c | 964.2$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.15 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 75c | 667.53$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.65 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 76c | 495.7$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.54 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 408.45$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 56c | 373.23$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 267.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.15 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 214.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 68c | 206.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 59c | 203.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 59c | 168.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 142.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 124.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 74c | 118.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 102.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 40c | 76.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 55c | 72.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 68.2%88 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 27c | 37.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…cf2abacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 74c | 36.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 40c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 76cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Over | 77c | 25.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.