Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d20a0b5d4b66bbe7d4b1fba14d8bbdd481c4f856e196d87c640512801e705d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 674.85$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 292.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 282.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 253.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 183.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 181.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 168$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 138.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 131.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 105.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 99.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 58c | 91.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 33c | 90.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 88.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 84.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 39c | 82.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 73.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 28c | 71.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 69.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 66.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 65.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 52.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 51.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 80c | 50.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 49.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 58c | 48.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked Yes | 43c | 47.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 43c | 47.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…b1fdbacked Yes | 41c | 46.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 31c | 45.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…72e3backed Yes | 43c | 45.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 43c | 45.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 43c | 43.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed No | 59c | 43.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 33c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 42.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 35.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed Yes | 39c | 34.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 41c | 34.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 32.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 31.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 31.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 45c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked No | 62c | 20.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.