Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf150bd8a923a636abf619a4a0fec64965a9f9d3477effd5b6b1b578d99ce26a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 41c | 314.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 234.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 190.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 156.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 153.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 141.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 44c | 140.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 136.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 132$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 126.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 126.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 40c | 125.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 39c | 124.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed Yes | 38c | 124.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 124.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…4439backed Yes | 39c | 124.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 119.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 51c | 119.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…da50backed Yes | 39c | 118$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 115.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 111.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 70c | 108.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 104.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 103.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 58c | 99.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 40c | 87.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 58c | 76.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 56c | 76.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 41c | 73.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 72.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 66.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 66.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 35c | 64.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 63.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 58.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 37c | 53.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 49.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 45.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 70c | 42.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 39.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 37c | 36.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 34.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 35c | 32.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 30.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 57c | 30.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed Yes | 58c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 29.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked No | 43c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 23.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed Yes | 59c | 21.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 16.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.