Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4de2e0427331ffd85bc80a7afd0d704d004ffffb5df8abe8da1263500482851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,984$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 1c | 1,824$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…bbb6backed No | 1c | 1,809$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 863.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.05 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 697.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 366.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 349.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 69c | 331.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 24c | 314.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 288.27$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 21c | 233.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 224.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 214.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 192.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.61 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 174.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 172.58$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 14c | 164.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 146.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 133.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 120.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 113$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 98.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 80.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 45c | 66.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 63.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 78c | 61.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…342abacked Yes | 24c | 61.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 24c | 57.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 57.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 57c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 22c | 51.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 78c | 48.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…cf22backed Yes | 26c | 44.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +119%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 24c | 42.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 64c | 41.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked No | 77c | 39.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 32c | 39.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 42c | 35.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 70c | 29.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 42c | 29.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…20a1backed No | 80c | 26.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…e934backed No | 80c | 21.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…f583backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 79c | 13.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 70°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.