Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e0fb81e3bf78722cedcddd6f524cf916e96f3ab988b645c9589d4febf60348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 34c | 1,376$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.31 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 10c | 526.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 398.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 11c | 391.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 310.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 22c | 266.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 231.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 62c | 225.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 37c | 182.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 71c | 167.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 26c | 165.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 32c | 149.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 64c | 132.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 119.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 32c | 116.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 112.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…f93fbacked Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 106.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 61c | 105.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 14c | 105.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 48c | 99.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 45c | 96.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 65c | 92.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 22c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 35c | 88.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 87.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 33c | 86.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 64c | 84.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 33c | 79.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 68.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 61.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 34c | 58.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 58.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 31c | 57.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 38c | 54.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 50.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 50.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…92f0backed Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 48.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 47.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 33c | 47.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 32c | 46.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 24c | 44.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 42.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 40.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 40.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 61c | 36.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 35c | 35.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 72c | 35.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…4a52backed Yes | 32c | 33.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…f889backed No | 73c | 33.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 47c | 32.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 29.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f3…8cc7backed No | 70c | 27.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 44c | 25.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 49c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 74c | 24.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 68c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 70c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 66c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 70°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.