Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Machac vs. Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e85d392c549efadd6b699b9917ef93ef595f9343d3a32edf164e31cc9e0a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Machac, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Machac | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Mannarino | 40c | 4,460$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.4 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mannarino | 43c | 2,596$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.68 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Machac | 25c | 2,473$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mannarino | 36c | 826.54$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Machac | 64c | 749.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Machac | 63c | 727.42$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Machac | 63c | 716.27$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.25 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Mannarino | 37c | 597.08$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.16 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Machac | 61c | 591$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.65 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…060ebacked Machac | 27c | 320$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Machac | 61c | 285.49$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mannarino | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mannarino | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Mannarino | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Machac | 61c | 163.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mannarino | 59c | 160.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Machac | 64c | 141.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Mannarino | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Machac | 61c | 103.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 69c | 86.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Machac | 59c | 75.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mannarino | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Mannarino | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Machac | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 46c | 57.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mannarino | 24c | 56.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mannarino | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Machac | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…7f11backed Machac | 64c | 36.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Machac | 64c | 35.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked Machac | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Machac | 59c | 28.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Machac | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Machac | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…5279backed Machac | 63c | 17.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.