Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50569896c6c8378a4681afae5827d58e3dbbb5cd431c72beb328952f285b65c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 13c | 671.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 18c | 357.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…7f85backed Yes | 23c | 342.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 323.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 322.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 25c | 263.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 215.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 13c | 148.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 131.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 123.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 114.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 19c | 104.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 79.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 77.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 75c | 76.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 71.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 19c | 60.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 55.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 66c | 36.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 35.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 35.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 77c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 20.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed No | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 13.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.