NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50ef1d23da8fa01f14c41274288a95ff1a42a8fb5a3e09b03fc21d0c0c14a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 51c | 651.41$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 21c | 508.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 3c | 396.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 11c | 376.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 78c | 361$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 264.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…5c0bbacked Under | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 63c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 14c | 194.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 48c | 179.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…ac07backed Over | 79c | 176.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 26c | 145.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 66c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 73c | 124.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 56c | 103.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 27c | 76.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…6ab6backed Under | 21c | 63.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 32c | 53.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 77c | 34.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 69c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…3b5fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…243ebacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…3fc2backed Over | 80c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…0322backed Over | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Islanders vs. SabresSabres won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.