NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef377abd88586c3f3906578a81b09a8bbbb7e64dfd49d6a10aba3d8bb77eb01f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a08…4badbacked Under | 52c | 6,311$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.99 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.98 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 49c | 3,851$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.48 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Under | 52c | 3,740$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.76 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 45c | 2,511$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.15 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 1c | 2,112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,979$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.43 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 1,370$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.91 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 1,265$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.71 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 53c | 1,245$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.85 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 29c | 1,145$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.67 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 1,006$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.8 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 47c | 620.63$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.72 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 460$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 445.29$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.91 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 365$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 12c | 322.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 35c | 295.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 47c | 232.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 230.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 203.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 52c | 164.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 161.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 19c | 155.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 120.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 109.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Under | 54c | 98.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 15c | 86.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Under | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 52c | 57.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…241dbacked Under | 52c | 52.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 19c | 52.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 43.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Under | 52c | 41.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3e…7547backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Under | 67c | 23.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 53c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…40d1backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Under | 52c | 19.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 19.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. SabresSabres won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.