NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbaf53ba3bab871396610bc0174156043bab0259d82cdfcf287d8b8481782db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Sabres, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Islanders | 59c | 6,641$3,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.84 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Sabres | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.99 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Sabres | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabres | 41c | 1,866$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.06 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders | 58c | 1,299$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.45 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Sabres | 42c | 846.41$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.92 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Islanders | 61c | 844.94$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.39 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabres | 39c | 697.32$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Islanders | 60c | 463.78$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.49 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Sabres | 41c | 461.13$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Sabres | 41c | 413.52$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Sabres | 21c | 338.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Sabres | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 40c | 295.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Islanders | 57c | 292.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Islanders | 68c | 272.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Islanders | 57c | 263$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Islanders | 43c | 236.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Islanders | 60c | 236.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Sabres | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7e49backed Islanders | 59c | 199.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Islanders | 54c | 177.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Sabres | 57c | 154.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 59c | 132.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Islanders | 61c | 124.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Sabres | 10c | 122.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sabres | 32c | 120.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Islanders | 57c | 102.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Sabres | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Islanders | 63c | 97.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Islanders | 61c | 88.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Islanders | 59c | 84.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Sabres | 57c | 78.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Sabres | 26c | 69.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Islanders | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Sabres | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Islanders | 58c | 58.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…b68dbacked Islanders | 59c | 58.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Islanders | 56c | 53.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Islanders | 61c | 51.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked Sabres | 57c | 51.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sabres | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Sabres | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Islanders | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Islanders | 59c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Islanders | 59c | 34.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…7cbabacked Sabres | 42c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Islanders | 58c | 33.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Islanders | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Islanders | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Sabres | 41c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Islanders | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Islanders | 61c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Sabres | 44c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Islanders | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Sabres | 54c | 21.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Islanders | 58c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Islanders | 53c | 20.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Islanders | 58c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Islanders | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Islanders | 59c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. SabresSabres won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.