South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52a9e78af8241d88f7898c21313be17f55c9b80ef6b20627239d2c4d4b38340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 8,569$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,383.05 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,748$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 3,094$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.51 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,320$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.11 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 61c | 1,306$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.82 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Over | 62c | 1,164$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 40c | 999.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.52 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 40c | 855.31$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.31 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…9164backed Over | 62c | 635.32$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 61c | 549.18$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.18 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 501.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 59c | 462.58$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 47c | 337.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.62 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 317.52$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 262.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 8c | 261.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 39c | 237.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 40c | 202.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 61c | 191.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 61c | 159.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 153.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 147.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 62c | 136.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 105.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 60c | 101.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 61c | 97.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 34c | 80.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 52c | 80.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…58b0backed Over | 61c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201b…9146backed Over | 32c | 68.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 65.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 459 | 46.8%215 W · 244 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…3054backed Over | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Over | 34c | 59.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…f6f9backed Over | 60c | 52.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…568abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Under | 33c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 62c | 43.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 38c | 41.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 35.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3aa9backed Under | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 65c | 24.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 48c | 24.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…3c30backed Over | 61c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…1f43backed Under | 60c | 18.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.