NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf531196aec54e730f8ebca7dffd655892f455b502ebc32ee20efa50cfdf1b202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pacers | 51c | 6,360$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers | 52c | 367.27$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Pacers | 50c | 305.76$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets | 48c | 197.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…5a1abacked Pacers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Pacers | 52c | 184.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pacers | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 48c | 93.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Nuggets | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Nuggets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nuggets | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- Pacers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.