NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca828f752e014d76b146f7fd80b1b05a80cd42827edcce4d6723bfb49f9a4f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Nuggets | 46c | 14,304$6,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,724.35 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 54c | 9,742$5,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,282.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pacers | 47c | 7,405$3,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,493.68 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 54c | 7,200$3,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.35 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 53c | 7,172$3,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 52c | 2,166$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 57c | 1,950$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.48 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pacers | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Nuggets | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers | 54c | 510$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Nuggets | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed Nuggets | 45c | 470.6$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 54c | 456$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 46c | 452$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 46c | 452$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers | 54c | 348.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Nuggets | 52c | 224$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Nuggets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nuggets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a51…f9c0backed Pacers | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Pacers | 56c | 140.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 49c | 134.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Nuggets | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Pacers | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Pacers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Nuggets | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 77.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Nuggets | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Pacers | 62c | 59.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 46c | 40.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 38c | 29.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Nuggets | 77c | 28.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…fccebacked Nuggets | 53c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Nuggets | 52c | 27.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Nuggets | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)this page
- Pacers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.