Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf59a56e7020ab378c598fac8c4b8f02cc176d467d507d2a1e6ce9dacc380d8a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,357$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 1,916$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,212$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.09 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 75c | 1,052$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.61 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…a324backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 979.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 882.37$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.67 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 55c | 758.7$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.39 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 714.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 21c | 710.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 58c | 576.83$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 79c | 446$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 76c | 416.66$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed Yes | 56c | 338.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 244.7$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 21c | 157.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 43c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…1ad4backed Yes | 10c | 122.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 113.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…eb29backed Yes | 14c | 108.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 61c | 69.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 21c | 66.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 63c | 63.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes | 75c | 60.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…df40backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 55.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 55.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 25c | 55.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1c…bdbabacked Yes | 22c | 54.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 77c | 47.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 46c | 45.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed No | 28c | 40.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 34c | 31.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…fc7bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 77c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 61c | 27.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…7ff1backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…f569backed No | 79c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…9636backed No | 77c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…5f20backed No | 79c | 13.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…b220backed No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.