MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf59d615d1ccbfc2ec21c3f85abff6298a1992119752f74afc79c31633286b532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 6,646$3,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,963.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 6,316$3,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 5,936$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 4,717$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 2,726$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 1,355$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.13 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 841.83$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.99 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 410.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 229.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 136.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 127.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 114.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 99.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 99.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 99.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 99.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 87.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 62.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 45.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 44.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 42.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 27.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 27.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 18.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 16.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.