MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c3f9b3bcefa96bb357ca5293068197302781ca48b1464a5d7ffd885b26d3fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 1,553$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,128$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.41 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 497.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 363.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 355.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 334.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 296.48$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 239.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 216.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 155.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 154.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 114$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Twins | 26c | 54.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 51.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 50.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 49.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 49.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 48.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 36.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 35.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 30.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 21.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 16.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.