Tennis · resolved market
Hellenic Championship, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Mackenzie McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf59e791e8e62538d89d1ebab45d8158f70dfcedd79d213f01c26839bc974e833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McDonaldof Trungelliti, McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked McDonald | 62c | 8,658$5,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,277.47 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trungelliti | 37c | 4,854$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.14 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trungelliti | 22c | 3,020$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed McDonald | 62c | 2,899$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.85 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Trungelliti | 44c | 2,600$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked McDonald | 71c | 1,799$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.08 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…e4e3backed Trungelliti | 44c | 1,620$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Trungelliti | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…5577backed Trungelliti | 25c | 984.5$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Trungelliti | 47c | 672.34$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.68 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…1790backed Trungelliti | 40c | 590.97$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Trungelliti | 46c | 529$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed McDonald | 66c | 474.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed McDonald | 80c | 426.6$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Trungelliti | 23c | 310.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…9e9fbacked Trungelliti | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7915…f32fbacked McDonald | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked McDonald | 72c | 139.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed McDonald | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked McDonald | 70c | 103.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Trungelliti | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked McDonald | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Trungelliti | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88a5…82a5backed McDonald | 79c | 96.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Trungelliti | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed McDonald | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Trungelliti | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…9286backed McDonald | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed McDonald | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…3939backed Trungelliti | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Trungelliti | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…4cc3backed McDonald | 71c | 44.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed McDonald | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed McDonald | 72c | 40.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed McDonald | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked McDonald | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed McDonald | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Trungelliti | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…2d85backed McDonald | 77c | 34.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked McDonald | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed McDonald | 71c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…97d3backed McDonald | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.