CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d474d85de30e048c0a17b0daad8bbc19bf1635dfed9e1255916660cd659b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof Astralis, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked NIP | 72c | 2,151$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.72 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…315dbacked Astralis | 39c | 1,234$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed NIP | 61c | 1,132$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.31 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Astralis | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 786 | 39.4%310 W · 476 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed Astralis | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Astralis | 62c | 999.97$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.98 | 371 | 57.7%214 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked NIP | 72c | 820.31$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.77 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed NIP | 73c | 663.13$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed NIP | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked NIP | 38c | 313.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Astralis | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 767 | 48%368 W · 399 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked NIP | 53c | 284.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Astralis | 26c | 278.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed NIP | 73c | 277.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Astralis | 27c | 171.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Astralis | 27c | 149.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 132 | 40.9%54 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Astralis | 27c | 116.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Astralis | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Astralis | 28c | 97.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…5addbacked Astralis | 27c | 94.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed NIP | 48c | 89.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked NIP | 50c | 65.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Astralis | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 389 | 45.8%178 W · 211 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed NIP | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Astralis | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed NIP | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Astralis | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 224 | 55.8%125 W · 99 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4223…42c7backed NIP | 63c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Astralis | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 220 | 60.9%134 W · 86 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Astralis | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Astralis | 28c | 36.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Astralis | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 331 | 56.5%187 W · 144 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…6c5ebacked Astralis | 47c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed NIP | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…4338backed NIP | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…a18abacked NIP | 73c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…d80dbacked NIP | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked NIP | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.