CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46ede2a3c1380b70510829bbaaf70f5f66aa0fe8730b3b58bcff03c359a1b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.63 | 359 | 40.4%145 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,757$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.51 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 322.68$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 288 | 43.1%124 W · 164 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…d4f1backed Under | 53c | 292.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 47c | 271.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 53c | 265.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 56c | 255.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 152$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Over | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 48c | 88.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 34c | 81.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4223…42c7backed Over | 53c | 75.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…a18abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 44c | 56.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 52c | 51.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8008…8f1fbacked Over | 49c | 45.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…f194backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 43c | 26.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 235 | 26.4%62 W · 173 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 61c | 25.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Over | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Under | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 49c | 22.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 331 | 56.5%187 W · 144 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239e…cb80backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)NIP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.