NHL · resolved market
Predators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf617832359cf94d736271aa3f53ba1055b83cb86e0eb0729b0be6eada8b235ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 51c | 8,700$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 49c | 5,833$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,086$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.98 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 979$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 850$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 762.37$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.94 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 51c | 484$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.95 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Under | 28c | 404.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 391.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 49c | 375.08$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 57c | 300.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 49c | 242.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 225.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.19 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 219.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…2108backed Under | 51c | 214.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 206.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…ea61backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 82.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 51c | 79.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 68.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 50c | 62.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 60.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 53.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Over | 49c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Under | 43c | 25.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 49c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…cca1backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…6125backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Predators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Predators vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.