Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf62f84f793dd81b252ecedc5fc84f9a2562f9e6733e9c0c14a2d812b4072a91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 1c | 2,812$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 1,439$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 21c | 265.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 80c | 242.83$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 28c | 237.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 78c | 221$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 47c | 217$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 57c | 183.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 32c | 168.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 65c | 146.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 145.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…ad55backed Yes | 75c | 127.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 80c | 120.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 117.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 113.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 101.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…469cbacked No | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 80c | 96.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 18c | 88.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…5784backed Yes | 77c | 71.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 20c | 69.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed Yes | 78c | 64.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 54c | 61.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 57.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 35c | 55.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 55.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 38c | 47.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…c36fbacked Yes | 51c | 46.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…b400backed No | 79c | 44.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…cad4backed Yes | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 50c | 36.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…6a23backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 52c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 69c | 24.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 74c | 21.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…4121backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…3b4dbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…24c5backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.