Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa605c17afd9c6781c95b3fa63c22abecac66a569ed06fe119ddfecd237d44219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,543$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 12c | 1,347$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.37 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 616.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 390.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 55c | 384.74$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 287$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 80c | 261.86$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 225.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 70c | 224$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 217$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 211.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 13c | 196.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 179.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 126.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 121.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 102.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 24c | 92.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 24c | 81.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 75.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 58.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…2a56backed Yes | 44c | 57.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 25c | 44.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 45c | 37.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked No | 71c | 26.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…562dbacked Yes | 67c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 43c | 24.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 24.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 22.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 60c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 78c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 74c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.