MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf668ca03461963f21d6290fc6dc9ae79b60e5720cbbcc58f3024e20821745236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 49c | 10,206$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,206.12 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 6,404$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 4,557$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 74c | 1,033$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Under | 43c | 450.51$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 58c | 250.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 27c | 197.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 93.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 41c | 57.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 36c | 55.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 53c | 48.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 53c | 48.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 53c | 48.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 53c | 48.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Over | 24c | 45.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 53c | 29.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 75c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…14d9backed Over | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Over | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…5a6abacked Under | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 74c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 76c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.