MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9068108cd25173ea36b65d9f9fbca675a9cebe0df19177ed01fcd3a362ede246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 15,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 5,625$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,368.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 4,837$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.48 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 3,912$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.59 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 3,511$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 3,060$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.12 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 1,817$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.02 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 1,742$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 1,572$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,332$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.21 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…63bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 1,068$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 1,022$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.83 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 908.95$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 801.67$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 405.77$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.31 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 403.06$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 378.27$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.53 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 298.71$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 298$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 284.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 271.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 251$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 231.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 215$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 144.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 129.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 126.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…8754backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 119.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 116$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 87.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 79.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 78.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 68.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 67.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 67.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 61.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 52.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 52.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 48.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 41.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 38.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 36.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 29.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…cc08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.