MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fed6526a928e35c788130fdc1e627e3a618610eb9df147ebea93662cb017f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 9,473$4,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,119.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 5,581$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 48c | 3,829$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.08 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 55c | 2,240$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 2,228$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.84 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 1,209$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.7 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 48c | 755.88$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.06 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 52c | 610.55$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 52c | 479.36$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 404$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 379.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…03fbbacked Over | 58c | 289.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…9921backed Over | 67c | 263.73$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 161.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 141.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 108.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 106.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 79.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 64.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 34.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 55c | 34.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…f675backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.