MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96619334975a192c1fed3a355f336b136572fe278cd56b195f264a8c6f5054ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 56c | 12,813$7,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,662.24 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 10,034$4,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Under | 60c | 3,704$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.33 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,004$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.63 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 1,929$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 1,717$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.22 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 1,089$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.07 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 995.25$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.99 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 44c | 836.41$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 57c | 789.47$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.47 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed Under | 69c | 673.75$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 55c | 636.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 499.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 464.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 420.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 307$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 59c | 269.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 243.08$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 72c | 206.29$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 39c | 197.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 76c | 172.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 143.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 87.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 40c | 85.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 35c | 85.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 82.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Under | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 75.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 50.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 49.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 69c | 46.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 54c | 45.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 38c | 40.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…3ad3backed Over | 34c | 37.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Over | 44c | 23.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…cc08backed Under | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.