Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66ea77ff8c399991d74d5b489b01cf4c1a21ae332b41886e90491f327e362e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 379.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 20c | 359.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 305$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 197.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 128.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 125.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…4b53backed Yes | 23c | 100.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 97.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 89.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 21c | 70.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 31c | 70.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 54.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 37.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 41c | 36.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 76c | 27.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…c42fbacked No | 72c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed No | 61c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 74c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.