Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8deec0804e12902fdd14bb5f9203b20def2df97909ab254e1e318ffab4aa8a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 39c | 582.32$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.38 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 75c | 521.79$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 495.49$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.06 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 267.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 46c | 243.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 214.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 195$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 180$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 167.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 137$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 128.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 123$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 119.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 109.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 108.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 100.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 10c | 97.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 93.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 92.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 56c | 88.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 86.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 85.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 85.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 84.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 78.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 77.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 72.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 67.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 63.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 62.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 52.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 50.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 49.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 65c | 45.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…6ff6backed Yes | 66c | 45.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 43.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 69c | 43.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 34.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 36c | 33.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 29.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 45c | 29.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 26.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 73c | 25.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a2c5backed No | 46c | 24.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 78c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.