Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0764f23e3ab02968e6ab5d9bac7e8e85e3749b24d7bb5feba04e84191342b7c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 2,979$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.69 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 408$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 403.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 402.16$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 275.05$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 263.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 201$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 61c | 200.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 180.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 173.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 30c | 171.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 158.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 36c | 156.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 29c | 131.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 103.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 103.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 42c | 91.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 26c | 86.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 76.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 74.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 28c | 71.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 66.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 38c | 52.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 52.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 46.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 43.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 42.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 41.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 40.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 38.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 37.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 30.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 39c | 30.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 44c | 25.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 17.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 75c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.