UFC · resolved market
Garcia vs. Nelson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67a179f50bad1629eee411e5afa5be787fb77cdabf265d85d988accb444f119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Garciaof Garcia, Nelson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Nelson | 19c | 2,087$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.99 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Nelson | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Garcia | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Garcia | 64c | 998.41$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Nelson | 9c | 490$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Garcia | 67c | 148.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Garcia | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Nelson | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Nelson | 33c | 98.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Garcia | 67c | 79.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Garcia | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed Garcia | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Garcia | 60c | 24.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Garcia | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Garcia vs. Nelsonthis page
- Andrade vs. SilvaSilva won
- Burns vs. BradyBrady won
- Peek vs. AshmozAshmoz won
- Schnell vs. DurdenDurden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.