UFC · resolved market
Burns vs. Brady
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cd1099ac0e4b42f3435089dd4c4cf22bbce5e48e263dd34c1265f3483c9019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bradyof Burns, Brady
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Burns | 60c | 7,710$4,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,632.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Brady | 65c | 5,000$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Brady | 60c | 4,022$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Burns | 35c | 3,766$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Brady | 46c | 3,560$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.8 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Brady | 51c | 1,259$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc34…ff67backed Brady | 67c | 938.37$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Burns | 37c | 804.8$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.78 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Burns | 36c | 708.37$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.6 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…a0ffbacked Burns | 37c | 624.32$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Brady | 43c | 550.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Brady | 63c | 350$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Brady | 66c | 226.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Brady | 61c | 161.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…0ad0backed Burns | 38c | 154.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Burns | 35c | 149.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Burns | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Burns | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Brady | 60c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…d459backed Burns | 39c | 80.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…1729backed Brady | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Brady | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…9ca3backed Burns | 49c | 60.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Burns | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Brady | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…895ebacked Burns | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Burns | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed Brady | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Brady | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Burns | 67c | 17.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Burns vs. Bradythis page
- Andrade vs. SilvaSilva won
- Garcia vs. NelsonGarcia won
- Peek vs. AshmozAshmoz won
- Schnell vs. DurdenDurden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.