UFC · resolved market
Andrade vs. Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f5a3e742b35f507cf1984e649cac7f0f26480e34555edf2293cd7b978afedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Silvaof Andrade, Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Silva | 72c | 2,473$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Andrade | 28c | 1,016$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.48 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Andrade | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Andrade | 35c | 622.58$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Silva | 69c | 416.67$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Andrade | 30c | 299.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Andrade | 29c | 197.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Silva | 71c | 147.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Silva | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Andrade | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Andrade | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Andrade | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Silva | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…0ad0backed Andrade | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Silva | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Silva | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Silva | 70c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Andrade vs. Silvathis page
- Burns vs. BradyBrady won
- Garcia vs. NelsonGarcia won
- Peek vs. AshmozAshmoz won
- Schnell vs. DurdenDurden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.